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| Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes: A Closer Examination (2010) |
Welcome to Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes: A Closer Examination. This is a periodic
column based on the book, Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States. It examines
tropical cyclones from a historical Mid-Atlantic perspective.
column based on the book, Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States. It examines
tropical cyclones from a historical Mid-Atlantic perspective.
a series of remarkable storms. "Nor'ida" in November. The great snowstorm of December.
Twin blizzards in February. Can unforgettable hurricanes be far behind?
There are strong indications that big nor'easters occur in tandem with fierce hurricanes,
especially during an active North Atlantic hurricane cycle such as the one that began in 1995.
Consider the following:
The huge Mid-Atlantic snowstorm of February 2003 was followed by Hurricane Isabel in
September.
The severe winter of 1995-96 was followed by hurricanes Bertha and Fran, very destructive
storms.
Further back, Hurricane Donna in 1960 and less powerful, but respectable, hurricanes in
1959 and 1961 visited the Middle Atlantic states amid a period of big snowstorms.
The legendary Blizzard of February 1899 was followed by the savage San Ciriaco
Hurricane of September 1899, a storm that devastated the Cape Hatteras, N.C., area.
March 1896 brought a record-setting snowy month to New York City and other localities of
the Mid-Atlantic. It was followed by damaging hurricanes later in the year, including an event
during September that pounded interior sections of the region with an epic windstorm.
There are many other examples of intense nor'easters occurring during the same year as
powerful hurricanes. The infamous Blizzard of 1888 and the great nor'easter of April 1889 left
lifetime memories, but so did the hurricane of September 1889.
Extremes seem to bring extremes. The 1888-89 storms came after several tranquil years.
Prior to this winter, eastern sections of the Mid-Atlantic region had a virtual absence of notable
snowstorms for several years. Likewise, there has been little hurricane activity since 2004.
The dearth of hurricanes making landfall along the East Coast north of Florida during this
decade is especially worrisome, as catch-up may involve frequent and dramatic activity over a
period of a few years. There is plenty of historic precedent for long lulls being followed
repeatedly by Nature's worst.
Snowy winters do not guarantee destructive hurricanes, but they seem to indicate an
enhanced threat.
Winter Storms of 2009/2010 Suggest An Enhanced Hurricane Risk |
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The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane's present
intensity. This is used to give an estimate of the potential property damage and flooding
expected from a hurricane landfall.
Wind is the determining factor in the scale as storm surge values are highly dependent on
the slope of the continental shelf and the shape of the coastline in the landfall region. Note
that all winds are using the U.S. one-minute average.
Wind damage in the Mid-Atlantic region will likely be more severe than those described by the
conventional scale. (The described wind effects in the Middle Atlantic region -- contained in
parentheses and rated through Category 2 -- are based on hurricane history and the author's
observations and opinion. Category 2 is the highest known hurricane-related wind speed to
affect the Middle Atlantic states, from Virginia on north, other than in isolated locations.)
Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt ). No significant damage to building structures. Damage primarily
to unanchored mobile homes, shrubbery, and trees. Some damage to poorly constructed
signs.
(Considerable damage to awnings, windows, shingles and chimneys. Moderate roof damage
to total loss for some homes. Widespread uprooting of trees. Many tree-shaded streets made
impassable. In the countryside: many fences flattened, weaker outbuildings and barns
severely damaged or loss, much crop loss. Large-scale power outages throughout urban and
rural areas. Numerous boats damaged or destroyed at anchorage.)
Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt). Some roofing material, door, and window damage of buildings.
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees, with some trees blown down. Considerable
damage to mobile homes, poorly constructed signs, and piers.
(Widespread damage to windows, chimneys and shingles. Many roofs damaged or carried
away. Scattered serious structural losses, with some flawed or weaker buildings blown down.
Catastrophic loss of trees. Most tree-shaded streets impassable. Many power lines and signs
blown down. In the countryside: fences, barns, weaker outbuildings flattened; severe crop
damage. Power outages lasting several days and longer throughout urban and rural areas.
Most boats damaged or destroyed at anchorage in highest wind areas.)
Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt ). Some structural damage to small residences and utility
buildings with a minor amount of curtainwall failures. Damage to shrubbery and trees with
foliage blown off trees and large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly constructed
signs are destroyed. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival
of the center of the hurricane. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger
structures damaged by battering from floating debris. Terrain continuously lower than 5 ft.
above mean sea level may be flooded inland 8 miles (13 km) or more. Evacuation of low-lying
residences with several blocks of the shoreline may be required. Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan
of 2004 were Category 3 hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama,
respectively.
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt ). More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete
roof structure failures on small residences. Shrubs, trees, and all signs are blown down.
Complete destruction of mobile homes. Extensive damage to doors and windows. Low-lying
escape routes may be cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the
hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of structures near the shore.Terrain lower than 10 ft.
above sea level may be flooded requiring massive evacuation of residential areas as far
inland as 6 miles (10 km). Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category 4 hurricane that made
landfall in Charlotte County, Florida, with winds of 150 mph.
Category Five Hurricane
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt). Complete roof failure on many residences and
industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or
away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe
and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5
hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane. Major damage to lower floors of all
structures located less than 15 feet above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline.
Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the
shoreline may be required. Only three Category 5 hurricanes have made landfall in the United
States since records began: The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935, Hurricane Camille (1969), and
Hurricane Andrew in August 1992. The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys
with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States.
Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which
inundated Pass Christian.
| The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale (with suggested revisions by Rick Schwartz) |
| To learn more, order Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States. Send a check or money order for $25.95, postpaid. (Internet special-- The regular price is $32.95.) Virginia residents add $1.00 sales tax. Make checks payable to Blue Diamond Books. Mail to: 6516 China Grove Ct., Alexandria, VA 22310 Or pay by credit card through the convenience of PayPal (see Home Page). |
| Rick Schwartz, author of Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States ricschwartz@yahoo.com |