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| Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes: A Closer Examination (June 2008) |
Welcome to Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes: A Closer Examination. This is a monthly column
based on the book, Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States. It examines tropical
cyclones (and nor'easters), as well as climate/environmental issues, from a
historical Mid-Atlantic perspective. New columns will appear by the 10th of each
month.
based on the book, Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States. It examines tropical
cyclones (and nor'easters), as well as climate/environmental issues, from a
historical Mid-Atlantic perspective. New columns will appear by the 10th of each
month.
| Hurricane Season 2008: A Historical Perspective |
The 2008 hurricane season (June-November) is here and this may be the year of the big one. Consider the
following:
The Middle Atlantic states have not seen a significant hurricane since 2004. During active hurricane cycles
such as the one we are in, going more than three seasons without a significant storm is rare. It happened
just once in each of the last two active cycles (1876-1904) and (1933-1961).
Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was the last tropical cyclone to cause widespread coastal losses to the region.
Remarkably, 13 seasons into an active hurricane cycle the Mid-Atlantic has yet to see a major coastal
hurricane! During the past 75 years, highly destructive coastal hurricanes impacted the Mid-Atlantic in 1933,
1936, 1938, 1944, 1954 (Carol), 1960 (Donna) and 1985. The shore is due for damage similar to that caused
by Carol, Donna or Gloria--which today would total in the low billions of dollars--and is in the normal historical
range of something more severe like the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944.
A devastating inland windstorm would also be within the region's normal historical range. The last occurred
in 1954 (Hazel), and the one before that in 1896. Those storms brought a swath of hurricane-force winds
from the Carolinas to Pennsylvania. The last significant tropical wind maker in the Mid-Atlantic was Hurricane
Isabel in 2003. In recent decades, hurricanes David (1979), Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) brought
widespread gales and disruption. Certainly, a remnant system causing widespread gales, several inches of
rain and a few tornadoes is a real possibility.
Hurricane-related flood events have occurred regularly since the 1970s. The most notable have included
Agnes (1972), Eloise (1975), Juan (1985), Fran (1996), Floyd (1999) and Ivan (2004). Others, such as
hurricane David and some of the hurricanes of 2004, have caused local natural flood disasters.
2008 marks the 75th anniversary of the Chesapeake and Potomac Hurricane of 1933, a Category 2 storm
that made landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, about 50 miles south of Virginia Beach. It tracked
through Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania with high winds, flooding rains and record tides. An occurrence
like that today would cause staggering losses.
The most likely period for a significant hurricane (or hurricanes) is mid-August through mid-October.
Mid-September through mid-October tends to favor the region's most severe inland wind and coastal storms.
Although a major regional hurricane is not a certainty, the likelihood in 2008 is clearly greater than 50 percent.
If weather patterns during August and September favor storm tracks up the East Coast, look out. And don't be
surprised if the Mid-Atlantic receives an unwelcome visitor.
Rambles...
It doesn't require a busy hurricane season to produce an unforgettable storm. The following is a list of
significant U.S. hurricanes that occurred in years with below average activity. (The number in parentheses is
the total tropical cyclones that year.)
Hurricane of 1896 (6)
Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (7)
Great Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 (6)
Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (8)
Hurricane Audrey--1957 (8)
Hurricane Donna--1960 (7)
Hurricane Agnes--1972 (7)
Hurricane Andrew--1992 (7)
following:
The Middle Atlantic states have not seen a significant hurricane since 2004. During active hurricane cycles
such as the one we are in, going more than three seasons without a significant storm is rare. It happened
just once in each of the last two active cycles (1876-1904) and (1933-1961).
Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was the last tropical cyclone to cause widespread coastal losses to the region.
Remarkably, 13 seasons into an active hurricane cycle the Mid-Atlantic has yet to see a major coastal
hurricane! During the past 75 years, highly destructive coastal hurricanes impacted the Mid-Atlantic in 1933,
1936, 1938, 1944, 1954 (Carol), 1960 (Donna) and 1985. The shore is due for damage similar to that caused
by Carol, Donna or Gloria--which today would total in the low billions of dollars--and is in the normal historical
range of something more severe like the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944.
A devastating inland windstorm would also be within the region's normal historical range. The last occurred
in 1954 (Hazel), and the one before that in 1896. Those storms brought a swath of hurricane-force winds
from the Carolinas to Pennsylvania. The last significant tropical wind maker in the Mid-Atlantic was Hurricane
Isabel in 2003. In recent decades, hurricanes David (1979), Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) brought
widespread gales and disruption. Certainly, a remnant system causing widespread gales, several inches of
rain and a few tornadoes is a real possibility.
Hurricane-related flood events have occurred regularly since the 1970s. The most notable have included
Agnes (1972), Eloise (1975), Juan (1985), Fran (1996), Floyd (1999) and Ivan (2004). Others, such as
hurricane David and some of the hurricanes of 2004, have caused local natural flood disasters.
2008 marks the 75th anniversary of the Chesapeake and Potomac Hurricane of 1933, a Category 2 storm
that made landfall on the Outer Banks of North Carolina, about 50 miles south of Virginia Beach. It tracked
through Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania with high winds, flooding rains and record tides. An occurrence
like that today would cause staggering losses.
The most likely period for a significant hurricane (or hurricanes) is mid-August through mid-October.
Mid-September through mid-October tends to favor the region's most severe inland wind and coastal storms.
Although a major regional hurricane is not a certainty, the likelihood in 2008 is clearly greater than 50 percent.
If weather patterns during August and September favor storm tracks up the East Coast, look out. And don't be
surprised if the Mid-Atlantic receives an unwelcome visitor.
Rambles...
It doesn't require a busy hurricane season to produce an unforgettable storm. The following is a list of
significant U.S. hurricanes that occurred in years with below average activity. (The number in parentheses is
the total tropical cyclones that year.)
Hurricane of 1896 (6)
Galveston Hurricane of 1900 (7)
Great Lake Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928 (6)
Great New England Hurricane of 1938 (8)
Hurricane Audrey--1957 (8)
Hurricane Donna--1960 (7)
Hurricane Agnes--1972 (7)
Hurricane Andrew--1992 (7)
| New York City May See A Major Hurricane |
What are the chances of a major--Category 3 or stronger--hurricane striking New York City?
No major hurricane has barreled from the ocean directly into New York City during the past 400 years.
However, in 1821, 1893, 1960 and 1976 lesser hurricanes plowed through the vicinity. Damage was
modest. Their tracks, however, suggest that something stronger could come ashore.
The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 made landfall 60 miles away. An additional four hours of
westerly movement before the storm turned sharply north might have brought its eye into the metropolitan
area.
A Category 3 hurricane (the same strength as the Great New England Hurricane and Hurricane Katrina at
landfall) would deliver gusts greater than 140 mph, especially to upper levels of the city's many
skyscrapers. Canyon-like streets would turn into deadly wind tunnels.
The angle formed by the juncture of New York and New Jersey, and narrowing bays, could funnel a
phenomenal storm surge. If the hurricane peaked near high tide, damage throughout the area would be
staggering.
The populous Hudson River and Connecticut River valleys could experience disastrous flooding from
heavy rainfall near the eye. Hurricane-force winds would carry far inland, possibly to Canada.
Three strength determination factors come into play as a storm approaches. Is the atmosphere
conducive? How much will increasing proximity to land weaken the hurricane before landfall? Are ocean
temperatures supportive?
Category 3 hurricanes periodically track within 100 miles of New York City, and Category 4's on rare
occasion have come within 200 miles. They've always made landfall to the east, remained at sea or
diminished before reaching the Big Apple. Cooler water temperatures and land's drag on circulation
usually temper them. But a compact, rapidly-moving hurricane might power ashore with little loss of
strength. And a warmer climate may produce favorable ocean temperatures off the New Jersey-New York
coast offering a welcome mat for a meteorological monster.
No major hurricane has barreled from the ocean directly into New York City during the past 400 years.
However, in 1821, 1893, 1960 and 1976 lesser hurricanes plowed through the vicinity. Damage was
modest. Their tracks, however, suggest that something stronger could come ashore.
The Great New England Hurricane of 1938 made landfall 60 miles away. An additional four hours of
westerly movement before the storm turned sharply north might have brought its eye into the metropolitan
area.
A Category 3 hurricane (the same strength as the Great New England Hurricane and Hurricane Katrina at
landfall) would deliver gusts greater than 140 mph, especially to upper levels of the city's many
skyscrapers. Canyon-like streets would turn into deadly wind tunnels.
The angle formed by the juncture of New York and New Jersey, and narrowing bays, could funnel a
phenomenal storm surge. If the hurricane peaked near high tide, damage throughout the area would be
staggering.
The populous Hudson River and Connecticut River valleys could experience disastrous flooding from
heavy rainfall near the eye. Hurricane-force winds would carry far inland, possibly to Canada.
Three strength determination factors come into play as a storm approaches. Is the atmosphere
conducive? How much will increasing proximity to land weaken the hurricane before landfall? Are ocean
temperatures supportive?
Category 3 hurricanes periodically track within 100 miles of New York City, and Category 4's on rare
occasion have come within 200 miles. They've always made landfall to the east, remained at sea or
diminished before reaching the Big Apple. Cooler water temperatures and land's drag on circulation
usually temper them. But a compact, rapidly-moving hurricane might power ashore with little loss of
strength. And a warmer climate may produce favorable ocean temperatures off the New Jersey-New York
coast offering a welcome mat for a meteorological monster.
| Could A Hurricane Katrina Visit Virginia? |
It's a nightmare emergency managers in southeastern Virginia fear most when planning for hurricanes: A
major hurricane makes landfall near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay in the populous Hampton Roads
metropolis. That hasn't happened in the past 200 years, but enough close brushes indicate a possibility.
In 1749, a possible Category 3 or 4 hurricane passed just offshore. The tide was said to have risen 15 feet
above normal, "forcing ships ashore where water was never before known to flow..."
What kind of storm would generate a 15-foot rise on the lower Chesapeake Bay?
"It would take a Category 4 hurricane moving in a north-northwest or west-northwest direction to produce
the greatest tides," says Bill Sammler , a meteorologist at the National Weather Service forecast office in
Wakefield, Virginia.
"This would be the worst possible case, as a Category 4 this far north is extremely rare," Sammler
explained. "However, tidal departures of 15-17 feet above normal could be expected with such a storm.
This is comparable to the tidal departures in the 1749 hurricane."
A tide 15 feet above normal? A harrowing thought. The highest tide during the 20th century rose about 10
feet above normal, causing considerable devastation. More than 1.5 million people live in the vicinity of
Hampton Roads. Emergency management officials warn that such a flood could displace more than a half-
million people.
What if the storm came as a surprise? What if a seemingly minimal hurricane tapped summer-warm
waters and exploded to a Category 3 or 4 at landfall? It might snare those who refused or were unable to
evacuate. It might catch motorists as they crawled through horrific traffic jams.
The hurricane would likely track near the great urban centers of the Northeast bringing enormously
destructive wind, rain and surge--possibly one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.
Is Hampton Roads a Mid-Atlantic New Orleans waiting for a Katrina?
History suggests that such a disaster could occur. Hampton Roads has faced several near encounters
within the past century.
In 1933, a Category 2 hurricane made landfall 50 miles south of Virginia Beach. During 1936, another
Category 2 churned to within 30 miles of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay before veering out to sea.
Storm surges generated by the hurricanes of 1933 and 1936 rank among the area's highest of the 20th
century.
During September 2003, as Hurricane Isabel roared toward the East Coast, some computer track models
suggested that the Category 5 storm might reach Virginia as a Category 3. It eventually slammed North
Carolina, coming ashore 150 miles south of Norfolk as a Category 2.
A Katrina in Hampton Roads?
Landfall of a major hurricane would bring winds in excess of 100 mph and an unforgettable storm surge,
amplified as the sea funneled into the confined Chesapeake Bay. Specifics are left to the imagination but
this certain: A major hurricane striking southeastern Virginia would be catastrophic.
(If you have any comments or questions, please contact me.)
Rick Schwartz
ricschwartz@msn.com
major hurricane makes landfall near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay in the populous Hampton Roads
metropolis. That hasn't happened in the past 200 years, but enough close brushes indicate a possibility.
In 1749, a possible Category 3 or 4 hurricane passed just offshore. The tide was said to have risen 15 feet
above normal, "forcing ships ashore where water was never before known to flow..."
What kind of storm would generate a 15-foot rise on the lower Chesapeake Bay?
"It would take a Category 4 hurricane moving in a north-northwest or west-northwest direction to produce
the greatest tides," says Bill Sammler , a meteorologist at the National Weather Service forecast office in
Wakefield, Virginia.
"This would be the worst possible case, as a Category 4 this far north is extremely rare," Sammler
explained. "However, tidal departures of 15-17 feet above normal could be expected with such a storm.
This is comparable to the tidal departures in the 1749 hurricane."
A tide 15 feet above normal? A harrowing thought. The highest tide during the 20th century rose about 10
feet above normal, causing considerable devastation. More than 1.5 million people live in the vicinity of
Hampton Roads. Emergency management officials warn that such a flood could displace more than a half-
million people.
What if the storm came as a surprise? What if a seemingly minimal hurricane tapped summer-warm
waters and exploded to a Category 3 or 4 at landfall? It might snare those who refused or were unable to
evacuate. It might catch motorists as they crawled through horrific traffic jams.
The hurricane would likely track near the great urban centers of the Northeast bringing enormously
destructive wind, rain and surge--possibly one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.
Is Hampton Roads a Mid-Atlantic New Orleans waiting for a Katrina?
History suggests that such a disaster could occur. Hampton Roads has faced several near encounters
within the past century.
In 1933, a Category 2 hurricane made landfall 50 miles south of Virginia Beach. During 1936, another
Category 2 churned to within 30 miles of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay before veering out to sea.
Storm surges generated by the hurricanes of 1933 and 1936 rank among the area's highest of the 20th
century.
During September 2003, as Hurricane Isabel roared toward the East Coast, some computer track models
suggested that the Category 5 storm might reach Virginia as a Category 3. It eventually slammed North
Carolina, coming ashore 150 miles south of Norfolk as a Category 2.
A Katrina in Hampton Roads?
Landfall of a major hurricane would bring winds in excess of 100 mph and an unforgettable storm surge,
amplified as the sea funneled into the confined Chesapeake Bay. Specifics are left to the imagination but
this certain: A major hurricane striking southeastern Virginia would be catastrophic.
(If you have any comments or questions, please contact me.)
Rick Schwartz
ricschwartz@msn.com