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| Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes: A Closer Examination |
- Welcome to Mid-Atlantic Hurricanes: A Closer Examination. This is a
periodic column based on the book, Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic
States. It examines tropical cyclones from a historical perspective.
During the past decade, I have discovered many characteristics and patterns of Mid-
Atlantic hurricanes. One finding, in particular, has been disturbing and burdensome. This is
the recurrence of what I named the "inland hurricane."
Inland hurricanes have visited the region about every 50 to 60 years dating back to at
least the middle 1600s. These storms have generally made landfall in North Carolina and
carried hurricane force winds along an interior track lasting hundreds of miles, usually through
sections of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Each event has
stunned residents and left appalling devastation.
The big winds struck in 1667, 1724, 1769, 1775, 1821, 1878, 1896 and 1954. Note that
two intervals were of 57 years and the longest, 1896 to 1954, was 58 years. As in 1954, when
Hazel swept through, 2012 marks 58 years since the last Mid-Atlantic inland hurricane. A wait
beyond this year would be longer than any during the past 400 years.
Never before have so many people and so much property been at risk. A track and scope
of high winds similar to Hurricane Hazel in 1954 would bring hours of hurricane force gusts to
potentially more than 10 million residents. The following is a preview of what to expect:
- The hurricane will likely come ashore in North Carolina as a major Category 3 or 4
storm, with sustained winds in excess of 110 mph. All past inland hurricanes were likely
of Category 3 or 4 intensity at landfall. All except one came ashore in North Carolina. All
tracked through Virginia and Maryland, with most continuing through Pennsylvania.
- The storm will strike in a season featuring an average number of tropical cyclones
or fewer, occurring during a cluster of several years of increased East Coast hurricane
activity.
- It will arrive in September or October. All past visits have occurred during these
months.
- The storm will travel at a high rate of speed at landfall and accelerate. All inland
hurricanes have moved at forward speeds greater than 30 mph, with some such as
Hazel racing at more than 50 mph as they tracked through Virginia and further north.
- The direction of the storm's movement at landfall will change little for the first few
hundred miles. Acceleration brings consistency.
- Expect the highest winds east of the track and heaviest rain to the west.
- Count on widespread peak gusts of 75 to 90 mph affecting an area 50 to 100
miles east of the hurricane, with scattered gusts of more than 100 mph. Gusts of 50 to
75 mph should be expected in areas up to 50 miles west of the storm center.
- High easterly winds typically last two or three hours before the closest passage of
the hurricane center. They last about an hour once winds shift to the west. The peak
gust may occur just after the wind shift.
- A track west of the Chesapeake Bay will bring significant flooding to that waterway
and its tidal tributaries. A track further east means less flooding there but an increased
risk along the ocean.
- Winds aloft are generally stronger than those at ground level. Upper levels of high-
rise buildings may experience winds 10 mph or stronger than at street level.
- Expect the loss of countless trees and prepare for extended power outages.
Structural damage to roofs, chimneys and windows, as well as to more fragile buildings
like barns, will be memorable.
Inland hurricanes seem hardwired into the climate. Still, at the risk of a dangerous cliché,
this time might be different.
Strong hurricanes have generally avoided the U.S. East Coast during this century. The
last major hurricane to make landfall north of Florida, Fran, a Category 3, occurred in 1996.
The last Category 4 hurricane to strike north of Florida was Hugo in 1989. Hurricane Isabel in
2003 is the only Category 2 to come ashore north of Florida since 1999. Perhaps, warm
summers in the eastern United States are creating a degree of protection from high wind
hurricane events. If not, prepare to batten down the hatches.
The Big One: A Preview |
Rick Schwartz, author of Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States ricschwartz@yahoo.com |
Why should one purchase the book Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States?
During August, September and October, hurricanes pose the greatest risk for a widespread natural disaster along the
East Coast. They are the equivalent of California's "Big One," a massive earthquake. Yet, while many Californians
prepare ahead of time for an earthquake and are familiar with earthquake history, few residents on the East Coast,
particularly in the Mid-Atlantic region, know much about hurricane potential.
By the end of the century there's a good chance that the number of casualties from hurricanes affecting the
Mid-Atlantic, and certainly the Eastern Seaboard, will exceed the number from California's earth tremors. It's also a good
bet that the dollar damage from hurricanes will exceed that from earthquakes. The lack of ongoing and farsighted
planning by individuals and local governments will certainly factor into the difference.
The information contained in Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States provides a historical basis and reasons to
prepare during the sometimes long lulls between the region's destructive storms. Know thy enemy.
Note: Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States is a limited edition. Copies of the first printing are dwindling.
During August, September and October, hurricanes pose the greatest risk for a widespread natural disaster along the
East Coast. They are the equivalent of California's "Big One," a massive earthquake. Yet, while many Californians
prepare ahead of time for an earthquake and are familiar with earthquake history, few residents on the East Coast,
particularly in the Mid-Atlantic region, know much about hurricane potential.
By the end of the century there's a good chance that the number of casualties from hurricanes affecting the
Mid-Atlantic, and certainly the Eastern Seaboard, will exceed the number from California's earth tremors. It's also a good
bet that the dollar damage from hurricanes will exceed that from earthquakes. The lack of ongoing and farsighted
planning by individuals and local governments will certainly factor into the difference.
The information contained in Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States provides a historical basis and reasons to
prepare during the sometimes long lulls between the region's destructive storms. Know thy enemy.
Note: Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States is a limited edition. Copies of the first printing are dwindling.
| To learn more, order Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States. Send a check or money order for $20.95, postpaid, for this 400-page, heavily illustrated, hardcover book. (Internet special: The regular price is $32.95.) Make checks payable to Blue Diamond Books. Mail to: 6516 China Grove Ct., Alexandria, VA 22310. Or pay by credit card through the convenience of PayPal. |
More than a mile long, the covered railroad bridge over the Susquehanna River at
Columbia, Pa., was one of the longest covered bridges in the country. Then came the
hurricane of September 1896. (Photograph courtesy of the Columbia Historic Preservation Society)
Columbia, Pa., was one of the longest covered bridges in the country. Then came the
hurricane of September 1896. (Photograph courtesy of the Columbia Historic Preservation Society)
Book Purchase Is An Excellent Investment |
Hours of persistent gusts that likely exceeded 100 mph made splinters of the bridge. (The
river did not flood.) A hurricane of this magnitude today tracking along a path similar to the
storm of 1896 would likely rank among the country's costliest natural disasters. (Photograph
courtesy of the Columbia Historic Preservation Society)
river did not flood.) A hurricane of this magnitude today tracking along a path similar to the
storm of 1896 would likely rank among the country's costliest natural disasters. (Photograph
courtesy of the Columbia Historic Preservation Society)