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| Column Archives |
| The Big One: Coastal Hurricanes December 2007 |
1821. 1889. 1944. Years that severe hurricanes hammered the Mid-Atlantic shore. Storms of
unforgettable power and devastation. With the peak of hurricane season rapidly approaching, hurricane
history suggests that coastal areas may see a major storm. Someday, the area will experience the Big
One, similar to those of the past.
The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, or "Great September Gust" as it was known in the lower
Chesapeake region, tracked along the shore from Norfolk through New York City on Sept. 3. One of the rare
hurricanes to retain strong winds even as the center or eye passes over land, it ravaged southeastern
Virginia and coastal Delmarva and New Jersey with likely 80-100 mph gusts. The storm moved rapidly, its
eyewall remaining intact.
The 1821 hurricane peaked with an enormous series of breakers that resembled tidal waves. These
were reported at Chincoteague, Virginia, and elsewhere. Near Cape May. New Jersey, along the Delaware
Bay, it was reported, "...persons who witnessed the overflow said it came like a perpendicular wall some
five feet high driven by the wind when it changed to the northwest..."
The finale added to an already destructive storm surge.
A similar series of destructive waves, riding astride an already damaging storm surge, also occurred
with the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944.
Unlike the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, the eye of the hurricane of September 1944 remained
about 25 to 50 miles off the Mid-Atlantic shore. It was a Category 4 hurricane along the North Carolina Outer
Banks, southeastern Virginia and the lower Delmarva Peninsula. (Cape Henry, Virginia, clocked a
Mid-Atlantic record sustained wind of 134 mph!)
It weakened to a Category 3 off New Jersey and retained this strength until landfall on Long Island
during Sept.14. A rapid hurricane--about 40 mph forward speed while off the Mid-Atlantic--seas remained at
a Category 4 state even as the storm weakened. A devastating series of waves swept the New Jersey
coastline from Cape May to the vicinity of Sandy Hook, nearly the entire Jersey shore.
At Atlantic City, an eyewitness said, "(The waves) picked the entire Boardwalk off its concrete supports as
far as I could see in either direction, tossed it over backwards, and crushed it like you'd crush toothpicks."
The great coastal hurricane of September 1889 did not wreak oceanfront damage through a few mighty
waves. Instead, the Category 2 hurricane stalled off the Mid-Atlantic coast and gradually dissipated over
several days. Persistently strong on-shore winds piled up increasingly invasive tides. (This scenario played
out with even greater destructive effect during the Ash Wednesday nor'easter of March 1962.) Anchored
hurricanes (or nor'easters) create destructive power through persistence. They can do more damage than
stronger, rapidly moving, hurricanes.
Remarkably, the Mid-Atlantic coast has yet to see a destructive region-wide coastal hurricane in the
active hurricane cycle that began in 1995. The past two active cycles (1876-1904 and 1933-1961) each
featured six major coastal hurricanes. The last significant region-wide Mid-Atlantic coastal hurricane was
Gloria in 1985. It caused more than a billion dollars in damage (1985 figure). Clearly, a storm of at least
Gloria's stature is due. However, it would be within historic norms to get something stronger--something
akin to the Big Ones of 1821, 1889 or 1944. Coastal property owners be warned!
unforgettable power and devastation. With the peak of hurricane season rapidly approaching, hurricane
history suggests that coastal areas may see a major storm. Someday, the area will experience the Big
One, similar to those of the past.
The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, or "Great September Gust" as it was known in the lower
Chesapeake region, tracked along the shore from Norfolk through New York City on Sept. 3. One of the rare
hurricanes to retain strong winds even as the center or eye passes over land, it ravaged southeastern
Virginia and coastal Delmarva and New Jersey with likely 80-100 mph gusts. The storm moved rapidly, its
eyewall remaining intact.
The 1821 hurricane peaked with an enormous series of breakers that resembled tidal waves. These
were reported at Chincoteague, Virginia, and elsewhere. Near Cape May. New Jersey, along the Delaware
Bay, it was reported, "...persons who witnessed the overflow said it came like a perpendicular wall some
five feet high driven by the wind when it changed to the northwest..."
The finale added to an already destructive storm surge.
A similar series of destructive waves, riding astride an already damaging storm surge, also occurred
with the Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944.
Unlike the Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane, the eye of the hurricane of September 1944 remained
about 25 to 50 miles off the Mid-Atlantic shore. It was a Category 4 hurricane along the North Carolina Outer
Banks, southeastern Virginia and the lower Delmarva Peninsula. (Cape Henry, Virginia, clocked a
Mid-Atlantic record sustained wind of 134 mph!)
It weakened to a Category 3 off New Jersey and retained this strength until landfall on Long Island
during Sept.14. A rapid hurricane--about 40 mph forward speed while off the Mid-Atlantic--seas remained at
a Category 4 state even as the storm weakened. A devastating series of waves swept the New Jersey
coastline from Cape May to the vicinity of Sandy Hook, nearly the entire Jersey shore.
At Atlantic City, an eyewitness said, "(The waves) picked the entire Boardwalk off its concrete supports as
far as I could see in either direction, tossed it over backwards, and crushed it like you'd crush toothpicks."
The great coastal hurricane of September 1889 did not wreak oceanfront damage through a few mighty
waves. Instead, the Category 2 hurricane stalled off the Mid-Atlantic coast and gradually dissipated over
several days. Persistently strong on-shore winds piled up increasingly invasive tides. (This scenario played
out with even greater destructive effect during the Ash Wednesday nor'easter of March 1962.) Anchored
hurricanes (or nor'easters) create destructive power through persistence. They can do more damage than
stronger, rapidly moving, hurricanes.
Remarkably, the Mid-Atlantic coast has yet to see a destructive region-wide coastal hurricane in the
active hurricane cycle that began in 1995. The past two active cycles (1876-1904 and 1933-1961) each
featured six major coastal hurricanes. The last significant region-wide Mid-Atlantic coastal hurricane was
Gloria in 1985. It caused more than a billion dollars in damage (1985 figure). Clearly, a storm of at least
Gloria's stature is due. However, it would be within historic norms to get something stronger--something
akin to the Big Ones of 1821, 1889 or 1944. Coastal property owners be warned!
| The Big One: What Another Hurricane Hazel Would Mean (January 2009) |
October 15, 1954. Hurricane Hazel swept through North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Pennsylvania and
New York. Winds east of the storm--from near the current Interstate 95 corridor to the coast--gusted at
hurricane force. Many places had gusts near 100 mph. Areas up to 100 miles west of the track dealt with
gales and flash flooding.
What would a Hazel mean today?
The following is a list of concerns:
Few residents of the Mid-Atlantic have an awareness of the region's hurricane history. Few realize that a
major--Category 3 or stronger--hurricane racing north from the tropics and sub-tropics can retain
hurricane-force gusts along a path extending hundreds of miles inland. They have scant conception of what
storms have done. A Hazel in 2009 would stun millions of people with its raw display of power and
destruction.
Widespread evacuation of coastal sections may create traffic gridlock. This happened in the southeastern
United States as Hurricane Floyd approached in 1999. Many shore localities have evacuation traffic
strategies in place. However, plans will not be tested until a major hurricane nears. With a Hazel, storm
refugees may head toward areas of tremendous winds. These gusts will create a wholesale pruning of
trees, falling power lines and flying debris.
Can public and private shelters handle 100 mph gusts? A Hazel will claim windows, turning the inside of
residences into a maelstrom of flying objects. Winds will fall countless trees and create havoc with power
lines. Individuals sheltering on top floors of high-rise buildings may face winds considerably higher than
those at street level. People sheltering in tree-lined neighborhoods may have trees crash into their homes.
The wind vulnerability of trees, infra-structure and buildings means an astonishing amount of mayhem. The
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale understates the risk from high winds in the Mid-Atlantic region. The area's
vegetation and building practices put it at greater risk than southerly locations like Florida.
After a Hazel, how quickly will vital utilities be restored? After Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and the widespread
loss of electricity the public fumed at a seemingly slow response and related issues. Utilities apologized,
called in consultants, and vowed to do better next time. Will they?
Will repair material be readily available? Time is of the essence after passage of a Hazel. Rain and snow
in the following weeks can create considerable havoc. In 1775, for example, a hurricane claimed the roof of
the new Maryland State House. Exposure during the ensuing winter claimed most of the remainder of the
building.
Will reputable contractors be readily available? After a hurricane disaster there is a huge need for
contractors to provide clean-up and repair work. There is almost always a shortage, which creates an
opportunity for the unscrupulous. Desperation is a swindler's greatest ally. Message to public officials: It is
not enough to warn residents about disreputable contractors. How about ensuing timely assistance? What
is being done to ensure enough qualified contractors?
If a Hazel strikes during 2009, it will arrive during a recession making a difficult situation worse. Expect
widespread individual property losses and a total tab in the billions of dollars. How well will the damages be
covered? Many losses, such as those from flooding, may not be reimbursed by standard home or renters
insurance. And even where there is coverage, a mega-disaster may bankrupt or cripple many insurance
companies. A national back-up fund such as that advocated by the group Protecting America
(www.protectingamerica.org) may prove vital.
New York. Winds east of the storm--from near the current Interstate 95 corridor to the coast--gusted at
hurricane force. Many places had gusts near 100 mph. Areas up to 100 miles west of the track dealt with
gales and flash flooding.
What would a Hazel mean today?
The following is a list of concerns:
Few residents of the Mid-Atlantic have an awareness of the region's hurricane history. Few realize that a
major--Category 3 or stronger--hurricane racing north from the tropics and sub-tropics can retain
hurricane-force gusts along a path extending hundreds of miles inland. They have scant conception of what
storms have done. A Hazel in 2009 would stun millions of people with its raw display of power and
destruction.
Widespread evacuation of coastal sections may create traffic gridlock. This happened in the southeastern
United States as Hurricane Floyd approached in 1999. Many shore localities have evacuation traffic
strategies in place. However, plans will not be tested until a major hurricane nears. With a Hazel, storm
refugees may head toward areas of tremendous winds. These gusts will create a wholesale pruning of
trees, falling power lines and flying debris.
Can public and private shelters handle 100 mph gusts? A Hazel will claim windows, turning the inside of
residences into a maelstrom of flying objects. Winds will fall countless trees and create havoc with power
lines. Individuals sheltering on top floors of high-rise buildings may face winds considerably higher than
those at street level. People sheltering in tree-lined neighborhoods may have trees crash into their homes.
The wind vulnerability of trees, infra-structure and buildings means an astonishing amount of mayhem. The
Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale understates the risk from high winds in the Mid-Atlantic region. The area's
vegetation and building practices put it at greater risk than southerly locations like Florida.
After a Hazel, how quickly will vital utilities be restored? After Hurricane Isabel in 2003 and the widespread
loss of electricity the public fumed at a seemingly slow response and related issues. Utilities apologized,
called in consultants, and vowed to do better next time. Will they?
Will repair material be readily available? Time is of the essence after passage of a Hazel. Rain and snow
in the following weeks can create considerable havoc. In 1775, for example, a hurricane claimed the roof of
the new Maryland State House. Exposure during the ensuing winter claimed most of the remainder of the
building.
Will reputable contractors be readily available? After a hurricane disaster there is a huge need for
contractors to provide clean-up and repair work. There is almost always a shortage, which creates an
opportunity for the unscrupulous. Desperation is a swindler's greatest ally. Message to public officials: It is
not enough to warn residents about disreputable contractors. How about ensuing timely assistance? What
is being done to ensure enough qualified contractors?
If a Hazel strikes during 2009, it will arrive during a recession making a difficult situation worse. Expect
widespread individual property losses and a total tab in the billions of dollars. How well will the damages be
covered? Many losses, such as those from flooding, may not be reimbursed by standard home or renters
insurance. And even where there is coverage, a mega-disaster may bankrupt or cripple many insurance
companies. A national back-up fund such as that advocated by the group Protecting America
(www.protectingamerica.org) may prove vital.
| Headlines during the past 18 months have told of "Big One" natural disasters in places like Haiti, Japan and in sections of the United States. The Mid-Atlantic region is not immune. The Middle Atlantic states have their Big Ones. Most likely, the event will be a hurricane.The storm will bring shock, dismay and disbelief, as such occurrences have many times in the past.The following excerpts hint at what will happen: "... The Tempest, for the time, was so furious that it hath made a general Desolation, overturning many Plantations, so that there was nothing that could stand its fury. We are now with all the industry imaginable repairing our shattered houses and gathering together what the Tempest hath left us." London newspaper article -- Sept. 1667 "... In short, had the storm continued but a few hours more the present view must satisfy every sensible person that this part of America would have ceased to exist." Letter from Stratford Hall Plantation on the lower Potomac River, Sept. 1769 "... for indeed this is with much pain that I write, for (the tobacco crop) is all out and no Houses to put it in, and that all our Year's Work to be lost in so little time is very shocking, and the loss is very grate all over Where I have heard." Letter from St. Mary's County, Md., Sept. 1769 "The damage to Norfolk houses, bridges, etc., is incalculable." -- Weather log, Fort Norfolk, Va., Sept. 1821 "We had an awful tempest. The damage done is great. The extent is not ascertained. Suffers many. Some severe. The papers give you a hasty and imperfect sketch. It is a scene that could not be described without detailing a thousand minutia. You must see it to believe. We have not a tree, shrub or fence standing." Letter from Norfolk, Va., Sept. 1821 "The fury of the gales cannot be described. The wind roared with the noise of artillery and moved with a prodigious force that carried down, like straws, church spires, solid walls and stately trees, and lifted off roofs like they were of paper... " Philadelphia Inquirer, Oct. 1878 "Word relics of the storm: torn off, unroofed, partly unroofed, razed, swept away, destroyed, blown down, scattered, flattened, leveled, uprooted, torn up, twisted off, carried away, overturned, dismantled, dashed, demolished, felled, broken off, smashed, crushed in, wrecked, devastated, succumbed, etc., etc." Daily Local News, West Chester, Pa., Oct. 1878 "Probably no detailed description of the damage done to the city and the surrounding countryside will ever be told, for the very greatness of it all... " The Evening Star, Washington, Sept. 1896 "For an hour and a half the world was full of a mighty, ever-growing roar, in which no separate crash of falling trees or breaking timbers could be distinguished. Houses shook; the whole earh seemed to tremble before the awful blast." Sandy Spring, Md., diary, Sept. 29, 1896 "It was a harrowing, horrible experience. It was nature on a rampage--unleashing all its terrible might, making every human cringe in helplessness. There was nothing that could halt the frightful devastation. It was something you will never forget--and something you don't want to ever happen again." Delaware State News on Hurricane Hazel, Oct.1954 The next Hazel will be an experiment on a grand scale. How well will the vast development that's occurred since 1954 hold up against hours of hurricane force gusts? Nature may be hard-wired to produce big interior Mid-Atlantic hurricanes every 50 to 60 years. Perhaps, it's a tool to prune Eastern forests to produce new growth, much as natural wildfires in the West periodically renew that landscape. The 50 to 60 year cycle has been maintained since, at least, the 1600s. Big wind interior hurricanes occured in 1667 and 1725 (58 years); 1725 and 1775 (50 years); 1769 and 1821 (52 years); 1821 and 1878 (57 years); 1896 and 1954 (58 years). So far, this century has been nearly free of hurricanes making landfall on the U.S. East Coast north of Florida. Maybe the abnormally warm summers have conferred a degree of immunity. As a result, the Big One may be decades away. If not, be ready for an unforgettable storm within the next few hurricane seasons. |
Voices Through the Ages Warn of the "Big One" (Summer 2011) |