The book Hurricanes and the Middle Atlantic States includes the following
conclusions/observations:

  • The region is in an active cycle for hurricanes, which  began in 1995. Active cycles
    typically last about 25-30 years. During that time, there are often two or three relatively
    quiet years, followed by significant hurricane activity lasting one to four years. The
    Middle Atlantic states have well-defined cycles of increased hurricane activity. It is as if
    someone turns on and off a faucet.

  • The region's climate is highly cyclical. Extremes are often followed by extremes. A
    drought, for example, may be followed by a hurricane-related flood.        

  • Coastal sections are due for a major hurricane. Hurricane Gloria in 1985 was the last
    to cause significant losses to Mid-Atlantic shore areas. The Great Atlantic Hurricane
    of 1944 was the last to cause severe damage along the shoreline from Virginia to
    New Jersey. The Mid-Atlantic coast has had a dearth of major coastal hurricanes
    since the early 1960s. Similar periods occurred from the late 1820s until the late
    1870s, and for about three decades during the early 20th century. These less active
    periods were followed by many violent hurricanes affecting shore areas, as well as
    several destructive nor'easters.

  • Interior sections are due for a highly destructive hurricane-related windstorm.
    Hurricane Hazel in 1954 was the last tropical cyclone to carry actual hurricane-force
    winds through a large section of the Mid-Atlantic interior, from Virginia to
    Pennsylvania. The region's climatological  history suggests that inland hurricanes
    such as Hazel occur about twice each century. Similar events occurred in 1667, 1724,
    1769, 1775, 1821, 1878 and 1896.  

  • The popular Saffir-Simpson hurricane intensity scale understates the potential for
    wind damage in the Mid-Atlantic region. A Category 1 (sustained one-minute winds of
    74-95 mph) can be expected to do widespread Category 2 and 3-type damage.
    Isolated areas may see Category 4-type losses. Leafy trees and other vegetation,
    less wind-resistant structures and infrastructure, as well as, perhaps, other yet to be
    identified factors are responsible for the region's wind susceptibility.

  • 'Major' hurricane Mid-Atlantic style: Meteorologists define a 'major' hurricane as
    possessing at least Category 3 strength (sustained winds of at least 111 mph).
    Because of the Middle Atlantic state's susceptibility to wind damage, a Category 1
    hurricane (sustained winds of 74-95 mph) over interior sections will cause major
    destruction. Furthermore, a tropical cyclone that stalls off the Mid-Atlantic coast for
    more than a day may produce major shoreline damage even if it is something less
    than a Category 3.

  • When evaluating the severe weather risk associated with a tropical cyclone, it is
    important to consider the possibility of violent storms in the air mass ahead of the
    tropical cyclone, in adjacent weather systems, and in the air mass behind. The worst
    weather May occur indirectly, outside the hurricane's circulation.

  • The Mid-Atlantic region boasts some of the most intense short-term downpours on
    earth. Some are hurricane-related. Hurricane Camille, for example, dumped more
    than 27 inches of rain on sections of Nelson County, Va., within about five hours in
    August 1969. Thunderstorms stalled by a hurricane off the Jersey shore bucketed
    Ewan, New Jersey, with more than 22 inches in about 10 hours during September
    1940.


  •        Jamestown was visited by a hurricane in 1667 that "blew down in two hours
    fifteen thousand houses in Virginia and Maryland."

  •        A hurricane claimed the Maryland State House roof in 1775. Today's striking
    dome, featured on a U.S. state quarter, is its replacement.

  •        A hurricane in 1878 ravaged Philadelphia. More than 700 buildings were
    seriously damaged or destroyed.

  •        A hurricane in 1896 brought Richmond, Va., Washington, D.C., and Harrisburg,
    Pa., their most destructive windstorm. The hurricane made landfall from the Gulf
    of Mexico.

  •        The Chesapeake and Potomac Hurricane of August 1933 created the Ocean
    City, Md., inlet, probably its only positive. A recurrence of that type of storm today
    would cause staggering losses.

  •        The Great Atlantic Hurricane of 1944 brought a sustained wind of 134 mph to
    Cape Henry, Va., the highest wind ever recorded in the Mid-Atlantic states.

  •        Hurricanes in 1821, 1878 and 1944 brought tsunami-like waves to sections of
    the Mid-Atlantic coast.

  •        Hurricane Hazel in 1954 was the last tropical cyclone to bring hurricane-force
    winds to a wide swath of interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic states. Washington
    National Airport recorded a sustained wind of 78 mph, a gust of 98 mph.

  •        Hurricane Agnes in 1972 likely created the most widespread flooding along
    the East Coast by a tropical cyclone during the past 400 years.

  •        Hurricane Floyd in 1999 featured an intact eye as it tracked through coastal
    Virginia, Maryland and Delaware.

  •        Hurricane Ivan in 2004 spawned Virginia's most prolific hurricane-related
    tornado outbreak.
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